Software & Systems

Articles of journal № 2 at 2015 year.

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11. Simulation of system indicators to estimate the effectiveness of scientific schools [№2 за 2015 год]
Authors: Ilyasov B.G., Karamzina A.G., Fazletdinova Yu.R.
Visitors: 11831
The scientific activity effectiveness of a research university depends on the quality of its function-ing and development control. Such control should be based on knowledge of the current stat e of a research uni-versity. It can be determined by evaluating scientific activity. Practical implementation of the scientific activity evaluation is difficult because of the subjective formation of scientific knowledge and the need to use different methods and indicators engaging experts. To assess scientific activity of a research university the paper proposes to use an integrated assessment of scientific schools effectiveness. A hierarchic system that includes level system of estimating gradients, parameters, system indicators and general integrated assessment is used to calculate i n-tegral evaluation of effectiveness. The authors prove the necessity of creating an automated information system of scientific schools effective-ness evaluation. Its application will allow improving the quality of control at all levels of a research university and providing these levels of control with necessary information. A complex of models using a structural a p-proach to the design of automated information systems is developed. This complex includes dataflow diagrams and diagram “entity-relationship”. A software functional diagram is developed to reflect an interaction of the main subsystems of the automated system.

12. Ambiguous semantics and incorrectness when working with C# threads [№2 за 2015 год]
Author: Billig V.A.
Visitors: 9096
Modern processors are multi-core. Increasing computing power by increasing the number of pro-cessors and the number of cores in each processor will only be progressing. Changing of hard leads to changing soft. As a result, parallel computing becomes one of the main directions of modern programming. When programming in C#, parallel computing is supported by the mechanism of threads created by an oper-ating system. You can create a thread object of the Thread class and associate a certain piece of code with it. It seems natural that when you create a program object of Thread class, the operating system creates a physical thread which will execute the code. For example, it occurs with file objects – creating a file object in the pro-gram leads to the creation of a physical file. The article shows the situations when the “natural” semantics takes place, as well as the situations when crea-tion of program thread does not create the physical thread. The author provides recommendati ons for optimizing the degree of parallelization in recursive methods and in methods without recursion. The research has made it possible to detect the situation when interaction of two important mechanisms (threads and anonymous methods) leads to incorrect work. The constructed examples show incorrect work of anonymous methods when paralleling.

13. An estimate of the of interdistrict passenger traffic distribution in electric transport [№2 за 2015 год]
Authors: Druzhinina N.G., Trofimova O.G., Trofimov S.P.
Visitors: 6625
The paper shows the developed analysis system of urban electric transport passenger traffic based on infor-mation about of electronic fare payment and navigation data of mobile unit motion. The objective of the study is to identify the traffic flow under uncertainty based on the mapping information, electronic fare payment (transaction) and the navigation system of the mobile unit motion (the moments of passing through the checkpoints – stops). Thhe authors introduce the con-cept of transactivator as a set of transactions, which allow determining the movement of passengers paying fares by E-card. The paper shows the possibility of “bonding” the transplants transaction set in a single itinerary for a passenger. It solves the problem of “last mile”: it means that unknown place and time of arrival of the passenger is defined. The authors received sample distributions of urban electric transport passenger traffic containing basic information about the movement of passen-ger: time and place of the start and end points of the trip. Estimate of the urban electric transport passenger traffic distribution is carried out between the city administrative regions with reference to the routing scheme of tram movement. The number of stops in each administrative district is different; however this allowed us to determine the direction of passenger traffic movement by districts and crowding of routes that pass through several parts of the city. The analysis is performed for the re-al passenger traffic flow in weekdays and days off. The system works with incomplete input data (only one type of public transport is considered). Based on the grouping of stops by administrative districts, OLAP-cube with information about the route of the passenger is built. Statistical analysis of this cube allows defining the extremes of passenger traffic and the city administration can mitigate these extremes through modernization of urban transport network.

14. A problem-oriented editor for design of rule-based knowledge bases [№2 за 2015 год]
Authors: Berman A.F., Grishchenko M.A., Nikolaychuk O.A., Yurin A.Yu.
Visitors: 9877
The paper describes a modification of the universal editor for design of rule-based knowledge bases. The de-scribed modification of the editor is intended for assessment of technical conditions and operating life of petrochemical equipments. The article also presents architecture, main functions and a structure of files for configuration of the editor. The feature of the modified editor is a semantic layer. This layer provides setup of the editor according to the features of subject domain as well as its integration with inference engines. This provides the ability to test developed knowledge bases . The semantic layer is implemented as a set of templates describing facts and rules (cause-and-effect relations) in prob-lems of technical conditions and operation life assessment. The templates allow abstracting from the syntax of knowledge representation languages (programming languages for knowledge bases, in particular, CLIPS – C Language Production Sys-tem). The second part of the semantic layer is the algorithms that provide dynamic creation (generation) of elements of user interface. The editor is used for developing knowledge bases to examine industrial safety of petrochemical equipments. Application of the editor reduces the participation time of a knowledge engineer in the process of design a knowledge base and provides opportunities for experts to complement the knowledge base in the operation of the expert system.

15. The problems of automation technological process of drilling oil and gas wells [№2 за 2015 год]
Author: Chernyi, S.G.
Visitors: 9164
Nowadays the problem of IT development and controlling equipment in the oil and gas recovery industry is very important. In addition to the system-managed automated equipment with its characteristics and compatibility problems, an important component of the automation process is the adequacy of its information support. Accounting for all the comp o-nents of the information system requires systematization approach (automation of drilling is a complex process; compatibility problems; the problem of information uncertainty; intelligent decision support systems; the expert knowledge base; automat-ed brake control; automated speed control; automation and control of fluids while drilling; the problem of energy supply). The work of a drilling platform (automation and information aspects), especially during the development of the great depths, faces many uncertainties. This constantly causes accidents and emergency situations that o ccur with a frequency which is not typical for other industries. In addition to the lack of data, there is also the problem of high speed changes. While moving to the project depth, the character of the rocks, pressure, temperature and other important para meters vary sharply and this re-quires continuous collection of information about them. Under uncertainty and high variability of existing decisions on fu r-ther drilling operations management the use of intelligent systems for decision -making based on fuzzy logic and soft compu-ting is considered to be perspective. A new group of automation facilities can help to overcome many problems typical of the oil and gas industries, to improve the efficiency of oilfield development. This group can include new developments in the field of downhole sensors that will provide measurements of high quality; new developments in the design of drill pipes with cable or fiber optic wiring that will help to provide large amounts of received information to the surface.

16. Software package for cloud virtual environments development [№2 за 2015 год]
Authors: Gribova, V.V., Fedorischev L.A.
Visitors: 8633
The article describes implementation of the IRVIS software package (Internet development of virtual interactive envi-ronments). IRVIS is designed for development and maintenance of virtual environments based on IACPaaS (Intellectual Applic a-tions, Control and Platform as a Service) cloud platform. The main principles are: automation of a development process; invol ving different experts and designers into the process; cloud services programs. Based on mentioned above principles the authors stated some requirements to IRVIS software package and to its implementing methods. The paper describes the main services of the IRVIS. They are: a structure editor, a graphic editor and an interpreter. The struc-ture editor is applied to develop a declarative model of a virtual environment. The article describes the method of implement ing a structure editor as an output service of IWE (Improved Web Editor) of cloud platform. The graphic editor is aimed to form visual el-ements of the virtual environment model and later add it to the declarative view of the model. The paper considers a method of im-plementing the graphical editor as a client-server cloud service of the IACPaaS platform and a method of applying the multiagent approach with messages system included in this service. The interpreter is designed for starting and operating of the develop ed virtu-al environments, each of them becomes an individual service of the cloud platform. Similar to graphic editor, the paper shows a method of implementing the interpreter as a client-server cloud service of the platform using a multiagent approach. At the end of the paper there are some examples of using the IRVIS software package for creating cloud virtual environments: a computer training simulator with classic ophthalmology methods, a virtual chemical laboratory and a virtual editor of a city district.

17. Decision support system development when determining the level of an enviromental fine of an industrial enterprise [№2 за 2015 год]
Author: Kislyakov I.М.
Visitors: 8617
The article considers a problem of decision support system (DSS) development for taking into account the en-vironmental factor by an administrative center when considering a new investment project, including both opening new man-ufactures and expansion of existing facilities. The author proves the necessity of DSS development. The requirements of the user to DSS are given, as a result there also is its composition: an information component (searching and gathering infor-mation for system operation), a modeling component (mathematical model development and its implementation as a comput-er program), an expert component (the analysis of results obtained in the course of the modeling component, giving recom-mendations). The paper describes the role of every component in DSS. The author gives an example of developed DSS im-plementation which helps an end-user to make searching of exact, objective, science-based result easier. This result should help a territory administration to conduct balanced policy on economic development with minimal damage to the environ-ment. The developed program complex “Ecological balancer” shows an example of the graph which reflects the dependence of an investment project net present value from the rate size of an environmental fine when changing specific emission per unit of new production.

18. Formal model development for a process of finding solutions by the modified Rete algorithm for fuzzy expert systems [№2 за 2015 год]
Authors: Zaw Min Htike, Mikhailov I.S.
Visitors: 7558
The paper considers the basic concepts of fuzzy production expert systems. This type of expert systems is based on a set of rules presented in terms of linguistic variables. The authors propose a developed Rete algorithm modification for fuzz y rule base. It allows creating rules and solutions in the limited natural language and it provides system acceleration due to a single compu-ting the same conditions in the various rules. The authors proposed a decision tree formal model of a modified Rete algorithm for a fuzzy production knowledge base. The model consists of a set of vertex-conditions, vertex-solutions, relations between vertices and relations describing the fuzzy expert system rules. Rete algorithm modification graph is formed in such a way that in each ca se not a correct rule condition value is calculated, but linguistic variable values in the rule.The proposed algorithm processes rules from the fuzzy rule base and converts them into the formal model of a modified Rete algorithm decision tree. The difference between Rete al-gorithm modification and the classical algorithm is application to fuzzy variables. Therefore, the building of fuzzy truth values of decision tree vertices is performed by fuzzy operators at each stage of the algorithm. It allows formulating the conditions a nd conse-quences in the rule base as well as the solutions in the limited natural language. The same conditions are combined during decision tree construction. It provides acceleration of decision tree processing comparing to the sequential viewing of the expert sys tem rules.

19. Implementation of a case-based module for intelligent systems [№2 за 2015 год]
Authors: Zo Lin Khaing, Ar Kar Myo, Varshavskiy P.R., Alekhin R.V.
Visitors: 14231
The paper considers important problems of applying a case-based approach in modern intellectual (expert) sys-tems. In particular, in decision support systems focused on assistance to a decision maker when managing complex objects and processes under uncertainty in input data and expert knowledge. Using the mechanisms of plausible reasoning and Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) is directed to expanding the scope of application of intelligent systems under uncertainty as well as reducing time to find solutions. To implement a case-based approach, the authors propose a network (ontological) representation model of cases and hy-brid case retrieving algorithm which is based on the structural mapping theory and the nearest neighbor method. In addition, the paper discusses the possibility of optimizing (reducing) a knowledge base (use case base) of a case-based system (CBR system) using clustering methods. The article proposes CBR system architecture based on the proposed case-representation model and retrieving and opti-mization algorithms for a precedent base (accumulated experience of the system). The authors describe the features of soft-ware implementation of the basic modules of CBR-system prototype in MS Visual Studio 2010 using the Protégé ontology editor for MS Windows. Effectiveness evaluation of the proposed approach and developed software has been carried out on several test data sets offered by the Department of Computer Science, University of California (UCI Machine Learning Re-pository).

20. Forecasting stock price growth using feedforward neural networks [№2 за 2015 год]
Author: Lesik I.A.
Visitors: 16227
The article considers the problem of predicting stock prices using feedforward neural networks. The author used a single-layer Perceptron (without the hidden layer) and a multilayer perceptron (by Rumelhart) as a basis for the algo-rithms. He also implemented a backpropagation algorithm for training neural networks and optimum value selection of a learning rate parameter for algorithms. The paper specifies the conditions of algorithm convergence (in the sense of rms con-vergence to some constant). There is an estimate for the asymptotic complexity of algorithms. The paper also includes a test and analysis of forecast results using time series of share prices changes dynamics in of Russian power company OAO "Gaz-prom". Traditional methods of estimating prediction accuracy are based on the measurement of the forecast deviation from real data (for example, the calculation of the average absolute percentage assessment (MAPE) or average absolute error (MSE). They do not always make possible to assess forecast quality for stock value dynamics adequately. Stocks are characterized by high volatility since such data needs to determine when the growth and fall will be, and most importantly it is difficult to pre-dict leaps separating stationary periods of value changes. Therefore, this article uses assessment methodology of forecast quality which is an alternative to such methods as MAPE and MSE counting. The results of prediction using the calculation of prediction accuracy and the analysis of the forecast diagram allow mak-ing a conclusion about the possibility of obtaining a reliable forecast of stock growth using feedforward neural networks.

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